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Parent Layer: Bodemdalingsprognose door aardgaswinning vanaf 1964 (herberekend in 2020)

Name: Prognose voor 2080 (cm)

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Description: Dit bestand bevat een op huidige kennis en inzichten gebaseerde prognose voor de bodemdaling tot 2080 in cm als gevolg van gaswinning in de provincies Groningen, Friesland en het noorden van Drenthe. Dit is gebaseerd op de prognose van 2020.In genoemde overeenkomsten is vastgelegd dat de NAM eens in de vijf jaar zal rapporteren over haar bodemdalingsverwachtingen, rekening houdend met resultaten van actuele metingen en specifiek onderzoek op dit gebied. De nieuwe prognose in dit statusrapport is vergelijkbaar met de prognose van 2015. De verwachte bodemdaling voor 2080 is over het algemeen iets minder dan de prognose uit 2015. Dit verschil is voornamelijk het gevolg van de voorgenomen beëindiging van de productie uit het Groningen veld in 2022. Ook is NAM niet meer de operator van het Tietjerksteradeel veld en staan er daarom geen contouren van dat veld in dit status-rapport. Sinds 2015 zijn er een beperkt aantal nieuwe gasvelden in ontwikkeling gebracht. De bodemdaling ten gevolge van de (voorgenomen) productie van deze velden is in de modellering meegenomen. Voor de bepaling van opgetreden bodemdaling door gaswinning worden geodetische metingen uitgevoerd. In 2018 is in Noord-Nederland een grote waterpassing uitgevoerd door Rijkswaterstaat. NAM heeft de resultaten van deze waterpassing, alsmede van satelliet radar interferometrie (InSAR) metingen, gerapporteerd als meetregisters (Referentie 5, Referentie 6). Tevens vindt er continue GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System, GPS) monitoring plaats en zijn er sinds 2018 ook 29 Integrated Geodetic Reference Stations (IGRS) bijgeplaatst. De bodemdaling die tot 2018 in het centrum van de schotel boven het gasveld Groningen is opgetreden, bedraagt circa 37 cm. De bodemdaling is gemodelleerd voor de jaren 2030, 2050 en 2080. In de prognoses zijn de laatste gegevens verwerkt met betrekking tot zowel de parameters van het reservoirmodel (dikte, druk, diepte van de reservoirs) alsmede de parameters van het compactiemodel (o.a. compactiecoëfficiënt). Volgens de huidige prognose zal de bodemdaling in het centrum van de schotel boven het gasveld Groningen in het jaar 2080 circa 46 cm bedragen. Voor 2050 wordt een maximale bodemdaling van circa 44 cm verwacht. Dit rapport is primair bedoeld voor de besluitvorming over te nemen maatregelen in verband met bodemdaling door gaswinning op land.

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